Journal of Emerging Trends in Engineering and Applied Sciences: Research Areas

Abstract:
We earlier considered a stochastic model for estimating the velocity and acceleration of spread of a (contagious) disease in any community when given the initial susceptible population and previous short-period infection record. This paper considers the estimation of the proportion of the community that may have been infected at a point in time. This need arises with the view to estimate the needed space and materials that will be required, given the need to relocate the citizens, as well as ascertaining the expected speed of action necessary in curtailing such a disease. With the fact that we already estimated the velocity and acceleration of spread, and bearing in mind that victims are randomly selected, the purpose of this paper is to estimate the proportion of the community that has been infected as this will be useful in determining the need to relocate the remaining citizens or just cleansing their existing abode, and the urgency with which such actions should be carried out. This brings into focus the need for a justified model for the estimation of the proportion the community infected as illustrated using existing data.

Keywords: stochastic model, proportion, velocity, acceleration, contagious diseases, infection record.

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