Journal of Emerging Trends in Engineering and Applied Sciences: Research Areas

Abstract:
This paper considers a model developed to determine the level of spread of any given infectious disease in any given community, provided that the initial population that may be susceptible is known, and that a previous short period record of infection is available. Bearing in mind that victims are randomly selected and not pre-determined, this work brings into focus a justifiable stochastic model useful for estimating number of infected people within a given period, so as to help in determining the volume of medicine that would be needed in such community for cure of the infection during emergency situation. The model is illustrated using some existing data kept by some world non-governmental social organizations

Keywords: infectious diseases, susceptible population, stochastic model, victims, random selection

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