Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences: Home

Abstract:
In this paper we investigated the impact of exports and imports on the economic growth of Tunis over the period 1977-2012. The study used Granger Causality and Johansen Cointegration approach for long run relationship Using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) stationarity test, the variable proved to be integrated of the order one 1(1) at first difference. Johansen and Juselius Cointegration test was used to determine the presence or otherwise of a cointegrating vector in the variables. To determine the direction of causality among the variables, at least in the short run, the Pairwise Granger Causality was carried out. Economic growth was found to Granger Cause import and Export was found to Granger Cause import. The results show that there is unidirectional causality between exports and imports and between exports and economic growth. These results provide evidence that growth in Tunisia was propelled by a growth -led import strategy as well as export led import. Imports are thus seen as the source of economic growth in Tunisia.

Keywords: Co integration, Granger causality; Exports; Imports; Economic growth;

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