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Article Title:
The Impact of Economic Downturn on the Performance of Agricultural Export in the Nigerian Economy (A Quarterly Empirical Analysis)
by M. A. Loto

Abstract:
This paper was able to analyse the position of the Agricultural sector in the Nigerian economy both descriptively and empirically during and before the global. Descriptively, the performance of the Nigerian Agricultural sector was analyzed using the indices of performance such as (index of Agricultural production, agricultural export, import and share in total GDP) tables 2&4 It was discovered that before the meltdown, all indicators of performance used shows a downward trend. The period during the meltdown shows some little improvement in some of the performance indictors such as agriculture GDP, major agricultural export commodities. The results of the empirical analysis from the pooled data from 2005Q1 to 2008Q4 gave a better result as compared to the descriptive analysis. Variables such as agricultural production index (AGI), exchange rate (EXCH), Inflation rate (INF) both indicate a significant shocks on the performance of agricultural sector export. The influence of (AGI), was positive, while that of (EXCH rate) and (INF) were negative. Direct foreign investment was positive but not significant. The expectation during this global crisis was that the sector would have been in disarray. Instead, the sector is taking advantage of the global crisis in the area of export of major agricultural products. The index of major products in agriculture was on the increase. Infact, this sector earns more foreign exchange than before. The global food price crisis is to the advantage of the Nigerian economy. However, there is still room for improvement in the area of access to market; curtail domestic food prices, reduction in multiple taxes; expansion of irrigation scheme and access to credit.

Keywords: global downturn, agriculture, error correction, structural stability, Nigeria

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